Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | OU +150 UNC -178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -3.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -2.6 (-14.6) | 152.6 (-2.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -4.4 (-16.4) | 152.4 (-2.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -2.9 (-14.9) | 151.9 (-1.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -2.3 (-14.3) | 154.3 (-4.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#10) | 12.1 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#9) | 1.61 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.22 (#5) | 2.90 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#33) | 0.579 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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