Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | TEM +278 NEV -355 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +24 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -8.2 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -6.3 (-17.7) | 148.8 (-12.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -8.0 (-16.0) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -7.1 (-16.9) | 145.4 (-9.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -7.9 (-16.1) | 150.5 (-14.5) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEM | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#149) | 9.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#127) | 2.84 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#141) | 3.28 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#101) | 0.621 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEM | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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