Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -700 OAK +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +24 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -10.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -12.1 (+11.9) | 138.9 (+19.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.4 (+12.6) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -10.5 (+13.5) | 139.9 (+18.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.2 (+12.8) | 137.8 (+20.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#46) | 4.2 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#23) | 0.84 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#21) | 1.30 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#17) | 0.566 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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