Old Dominion
Monarchs
87
–
111
FINAL
Neutral
Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
TCU
Horned Frogs
Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | ODU +700 TCU -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +24 | 198 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -15.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+47.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -13.1 (-10.9) | 149.4 (+48.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -14.6 (-9.4) | 148.8 (+49.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -14.1 (-9.9) | 149.4 (+48.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -15.3 (-8.7) | 150.2 (+47.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#248) | 11.3 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#227) | 2.38 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#252) | 3.30 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#202) | 0.523 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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