Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
| Money | PITT -900 PFW +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +14 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -11.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-46.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.4 (+1.6) | 148.7 (-38.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -10.3 (+3.7) | 149.3 (-39.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -10.5 (+3.5) | 150.9 (-40.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -11.6 (+2.4) | 151.4 (-41.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#30) | 5.3 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#102) | 2.34 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#91) | 2.98 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#108) | 0.561 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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