Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SEA -125 LT +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -1.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -2.2 (+3.8) | 134.1 (+17.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -1.0 (+5.0) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -1.2 (+4.8) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -2.0 (+4.0) | 135.3 (+16.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#99) | 7.7 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#207) | 1.68 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#170) | 2.67 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#230) | 0.579 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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