Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UVU +150 LIB -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -3.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -3.3 (-12.7) | 129.3 (+12.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -1.5 (-14.5) | 131.2 (+10.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -2.1 (-13.9) | 132.9 (+9.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -2.3 (-13.7) | 130.6 (+11.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#173) | 8.3 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#135) | 1.47 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#143) | 1.95 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#127) | 0.569 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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