Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -500 GWEB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +4 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -12.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+49.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -11.3 (-7.3) | 134.9 (+49.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.2 (-5.2) | 136.0 (+48.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -10.4 (-6.4) | 136.6 (+47.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -8.8 (-4.8) | 138.2 (+45.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#103) | -3.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#84) | -0.61 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#84) | -1.23 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#67) | 0.459 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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