Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -3500 STBK +1350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +44 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -21.0 (+23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -22.0 (+22.0) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -17.2 (+26.8) | 140.1 (+13.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -19.0 (+25.0) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -18.9 (+25.1) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#27) | -4.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#83) | -0.59 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#57) | -0.20 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#123) | 0.469 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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