Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 179.0 Over |
| Money | IOWA -10000 UMBC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +22 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -25.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -21.5 (+0.5) | 163.8 (+20.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -22.6 (-0.6) | 165.5 (+18.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -23.5 (-1.5) | 168.8 (+15.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -23.4 (-1.4) | 167.8 (+16.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#42) | -10.2 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#133) | -2.53 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#121) | -3.55 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#100) | 0.334 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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