Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | ECU -800 DSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +29 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -7.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -8.3 (+20.7) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -6.1 (+22.9) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -5.9 (+23.1) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -7.9 (+21.1) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-8 |
| Home | 11-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#240) | -6.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#235) | -1.25 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#233) | -1.68 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#255) | 0.432 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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