Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +43 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -34.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -27.1 (+15.9) | 157.1 (-0.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -24.6 (+18.4) | 157.0 (-0.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -31.3 (+11.7) | 155.3 (+1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -31.7 (+11.3) | 154.9 (+2.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#5) | -8.1 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#4) | -0.36 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.59 (#2) | -0.28 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.728 (#1) | 0.477 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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