Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | WAKE -4500 PRES +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +23 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -19.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -19.6 (+3.4) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -19.5 (+3.5) | 145.4 (+13.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -19.8 (+3.2) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -19.4 (+3.6) | 147.0 (+12.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 17-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#65) | -7.1 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#117) | -1.29 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#92) | -1.61 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#99) | 0.391 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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