He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–12 on winners spread MAE 9.4 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Le Moyne @ Penn State +12.0 150.3 86% 55–72 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Davidson +12.1 141.9 87% 59–62 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas +11.9 151.4 87% 73–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Oregon State +5.2 137.5 69% 57–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Richmond +20.6 142.6 91% 66–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Colorado +17.6 149.5 90% 71–98 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Troy +8.1 147.0 78% 81–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Central Michigan +5.7 139.3 72% 63–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Marshall +1.3 147.1 51% 78–69 ✗
UNC Asheville @ App State +11.4 143.2 83% 76–63 ✗
Colgate @ Iona +0.9 132.6 50% 65–85 ✓
South Dakota State @ Norfolk State -1.7 134.5 43% 65–84 ✗
Samford @ Texas Southern -5.6 152.3 27% 87–65 ✓
Maine @ Florida International -1.6 134.0 42% 74–82 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Charleston +0.3 142.3 49% 82–89 ✓
William & Mary @ Pepperdine +6.7 148.8 75% 59–71 ✓
Fairfield @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.8 151.2 49% 92–69 ✓
Florida A&M @ UCF +18.9 140.2 91% 56–69 ✓
Texas State @ Houston +23.6 127.3 91% 37–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ South Alabama +13.2 150.2 88% 67–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Miami +22.3 148.5 91% 59–97 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Northern Illinois +2.3 157.7 67% 76–63 ✗
Ball State @ Minnesota +15.7 142.2 88% 63–80 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Bradley +8.9 137.7 81% 64–75 ✓
Army @ UTSA +6.6 138.3 72% 63–53 ✗
Idaho @ UC Riverside +2.4 134.1 61% 67–82 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Illinois State +12.9 133.1 86% 64–85 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa State +25.6 142.1 91% 48–80 ✓
North Alabama @ Indiana +8.3 146.6 79% 66–83 ✓
Wichita State @ Kansas State +0.6 144.4 53% 60–69 ✓
Stanford @ San Diego State +12.6 149.2 87% 60–74 ✓
Kent State @ Oregon +7.6 151.6 75% 70–84 ✓
Lamar @ LSU +7.1 152.6 76% 66–87 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington +15.8 157.9 89% 66–73 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Massachusetts +3.4 145.5 64% 73–70 ✗
Wyoming @ UTEP +2.4 137.7 58% 67–78 ✓
South Dakota @ San Diego +8.6 156.9 82% 66–69 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Saint Mary's +12.2 131.4 86% 56–92 ✓
Hofstra @ UNLV +2.3 143.3 57% 56–74 ✓
Omaha @ Cal Poly +2.2 137.9 56% 53–66 ✓
Boise State @ Washington State +1.0 138.8 54% 61–66 ✓
Portland @ Hawai'i +11.5 147.7 85% 56–69 ✓
Drexel @ Bryant +0.4 133.2 50% 86–104 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Boston University -0.0 136.0 48% 71–63 ✓
James Madison @ Morgan State -11.8 161.5 15% 89–75 ✓
Vermont @ Miami (OH) -2.2 139.7 40% 69–70 ✗
Cornell @ Robert Morris -4.7 155.3 30% 90–85 ✓
Chattanooga @ Milwaukee -1.2 150.0 45% 83–85 ✗
George Mason @ Tulane +3.6 155.3 64% 69–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Merrimack +7.2 130.5 74% 52–68 ✓
Siena @ Brown +15.0 132.1 89% 67–71 ✓
UAlbany @ South Florida +5.8 147.6 71% 73–89 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas +18.1 148.3 90% 55–71 ✓
Drake @ UAB -6.3 146.9 28% 78–79 ✗
North Florida @ Georgia +13.6 145.8 88% 60–78 ✓
Nicholls @ Towson +4.2 139.0 67% 55–65 ✓
Montana State @ Cal State Northridge +8.3 140.6 79% 70–82 ✓
Grambling @ Florida +21.6 148.0 91% 57–96 ✓
Nevada @ TCU +0.3 146.8 52% 88–75 ✗
Queens University @ Clemson +20.2 151.5 91% 79–109 ✓
SMU @ Murray State -8.2 136.4 21% 92–65 ✓
Elon @ South Carolina +16.0 149.3 88% 43–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.