Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
| Money | USD -420 SDAK +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USD -11.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -8.8 (-5.8) | 154.7 (-19.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -8.6 (-5.6) | 156.9 (-21.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -10.1 (-7.1) | 157.1 (-22.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -9.9 (-6.9) | 156.7 (-21.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#191) | -7.9 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#138) | -1.04 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#162) | -1.54 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#136) | 0.414 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.