Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USF -455 UALB +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | USF -8.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -8.7 (+7.3) | 151.9 (+10.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -5.8 (+10.2) | 147.6 (+14.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.2 (+9.8) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.1 (+8.9) | 151.4 (+10.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#140) | -2.0 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#237) | 0.16 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#219) | -0.12 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#233) | 0.499 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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