Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Thomas & Mack Center · December 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNLV -4.0 Home covered
O/U 142.0 Under
Money UNLV -190 / HOF +158
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNLV win
Actual UNLV +18 130 Won
Massey UNLV -0.9 (+17.1) — —
Massey Totals — 147.7 (-17.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 40% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 33% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNLV -1.1 (+16.9) 143.1 (-13.1) 55% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNLV -2.3 (+15.7) 143.3 (-13.3) 57% ✓
Baseline ML UNLV -1.7 (+16.3) 142.9 (-12.9) 56% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNLV -2.3 (+15.7) 143.1 (-13.1) 58% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNLV HOF
Overall 21-13 20-13
Conference 12-6 12-6
Home 12-5 11-2
Away 8-4 5-9
Neutral 1-4 4-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.9 73.4
Avg Pts Against 69.8 69.1
Massey 2.5 (#132) 6.0 (#86)
Bradley-Terry -0.28 (#208) 1.02 (#93)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.29 (#205) 1.48 (#90)
RPI 0.487 (#197) 0.565 (#77)
Shooting & Four Factors UNLV HOF
FG% 46.5% 47.3%
3PT% 34.2% 37.5%
REB / G 30.6 33.7
OREB / G 8.4 7.7
AST / TO 1.28 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 56.3%
TOV% 14.8% 16.9%
ORB% 25.2% 23.8%
FT Rate 19.7% 19.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 17.5%
DRB% 64.6% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.7% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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