Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | UNLV -190 HOF +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -0.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -1.1 (+16.9) | 143.1 (-13.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -2.3 (+15.7) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -1.7 (+16.3) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -2.3 (+15.7) | 143.1 (-13.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#132) | 6.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#208) | 1.02 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#205) | 1.48 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#197) | 0.565 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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