Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -1200 BUF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -24.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -15.5 (-9.5) | 142.3 (-4.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -20.6 (-14.6) | 142.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -23.0 (-17.0) | 143.1 (-5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -22.7 (-16.7) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 2-13 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#80) | -13.5 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#172) | -3.62 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#157) | -4.93 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.399 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 25.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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