I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Robins Center · December 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread RICH -15.5 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money RICH -1200 / BUF +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total RICH win
Actual RICH +6 138 Won
Massey RICH -24.8 (-18.8) — —
Massey Totals — 140.6 (-2.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ RICH -15.5 (-9.5) 142.3 (-4.3) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML RICH -20.6 (-14.6) 142.6 (-4.6) 91% ✓
Baseline ML RICH -23.0 (-17.0) 143.1 (-5.1) 91% ✓
Baseline Plus ML RICH -22.7 (-16.7) 143.0 (-5.0) 91% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings RICH BUF
Overall 23-10 4-27
Conference 15-3 2-16
Home 15-1 2-13
Away 7-6 2-11
Neutral 1-3 0-3
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L3 L5
Avg Pts For 71.9 67.3
Avg Pts Against 66.3 79.6
Massey 6.8 (#80) -13.5 (#349)
Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#172) -3.62 (#359)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#157) -4.93 (#358)
RPI 0.489 (#191) 0.399 (#328)
Shooting & Four Factors RICH BUF
FG% 48.4% 39.4%
3PT% 36.6% 25.1%
REB / G 32.9 36.3
OREB / G 6.3 13.1
AST / TO 1.70 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.1% 44.8%
TOV% 11.4% 23.1%
ORB% 18.9% 33.8%
FT Rate 16.7% 20.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 56.5%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 15.6%
DRB% 70.4% 68.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.1% 20.1%

Game Analysis

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