Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -5000 UTU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +27 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -21.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -19.0 (+8.0) | 148.1 (+20.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -17.6 (+9.4) | 149.5 (+19.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -18.7 (+8.3) | 149.5 (+19.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -20.3 (+6.7) | 148.9 (+20.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#27) | -3.7 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#71) | -0.11 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#63) | -0.24 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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