Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -1200 SEMO +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -15.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -10.5 (+10.5) | 134.4 (+14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -12.9 (+8.1) | 133.1 (+15.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -13.0 (+8.0) | 133.0 (+16.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -13.5 (+7.5) | 133.2 (+15.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#213) | -13.6 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#177) | -2.06 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#170) | -3.15 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#199) | 0.438 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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