Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -333 W&M +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -9.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -7.9 (+4.1) | 146.7 (-16.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -6.7 (+5.3) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -6.9 (+5.1) | 149.6 (-19.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -6.7 (+5.3) | 148.1 (-18.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#210) | -7.2 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#305) | -1.76 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#296) | -2.39 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#324) | 0.383 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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