Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1400 UPST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -16.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -13.1 (-10.1) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -12.1 (-9.1) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -13.2 (-10.2) | 142.3 (-21.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -12.4 (-9.4) | 140.1 (-19.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#105) | -8.1 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#82) | -1.15 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#85) | -1.88 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#80) | 0.465 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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