Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -1400 ACU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -13.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -13.9 (-3.9) | 150.8 (+5.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.9 (-1.9) | 151.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -13.1 (-3.1) | 152.5 (+3.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.7 (-2.7) | 153.5 (+2.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2020 | ARK 85 – 72 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#89) | -3.6 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#106) | -0.62 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#103) | -0.55 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#108) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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