Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -900 ACU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -13.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -11.0 (+2.0) | 142.0 (+15.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.7 (+1.3) | 136.9 (+20.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.9 (+2.1) | 137.1 (+19.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.1 (+0.9) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | ARK 83 – 73 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#7) | 8.9 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#72) | 1.36 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#85) | 2.18 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#172) | 0.548 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 43.8% |
| REB / G | 47.7 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.8% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 31.1% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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