Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -138 ME +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ME -1.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -0.0 (+8.0) | 133.1 (+22.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -1.6 (+9.6) | 134.0 (+22.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ME -1.1 (+9.1) | 134.2 (+21.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -1.8 (+9.8) | 135.2 (+20.8) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#292) | -1.3 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#327) | -0.10 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#318) | -0.15 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#313) | 0.468 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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