Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -8000 STO +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +38 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -26.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -24.7 (+13.3) | 148.8 (+7.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -22.3 (+15.7) | 148.5 (+7.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -26.5 (+11.5) | 147.9 (+8.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -26.5 (+11.5) | 149.5 (+6.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#68) | -14.5 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#44) | -2.30 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#61) | -3.09 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#32) | 0.412 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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