Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MINN -900 BALL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -15.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -10.6 (+6.4) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -15.7 (+1.3) | 142.2 (+0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -15.3 (+1.7) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -16.6 (+0.4) | 139.8 (+3.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#81) | -4.2 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#149) | 0.10 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#119) | -0.44 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#192) | 0.485 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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