Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | TCU -170 NEV +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +13 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -1.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -0.9 (-13.9) | 148.7 (+14.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -0.3 (-13.3) | 146.8 (+16.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -0.2 (-13.2) | 147.3 (+15.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -0.6 (-13.6) | 151.1 (+11.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#34) | 11.0 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#27) | 2.95 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#27) | 3.35 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#142) | 0.626 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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