Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | APP -450 UNCA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -14.1 (-27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -11.8 (-24.8) | 145.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -13.7 (-26.7) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -13.5 (-26.5) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -13.7 (-26.7) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | UNCA 67 – 55 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#63) | -6.0 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#45) | -0.12 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#59) | -0.23 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#44) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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