Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -275 IDST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -3.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -4.6 (+14.4) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -5.2 (+13.8) | 137.5 (-4.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -5.2 (+13.8) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -4.9 (+14.1) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#236) | -2.9 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#121) | -1.53 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#128) | -1.59 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#118) | 0.393 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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