Look out honey, 'cause I'm using technology "Search and Destroy" - Iggy and the Stooges
Bogota Savings Bank Center · December 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -2.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money FDU +140 / FAIR -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total FDU win
Actual FAIR +23 161 Lost
Massey FAIR -0.6 (-22.4)
Massey Totals 159.0 (+2.0)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 65%
Baseline Plus ML FDU -0.2 (-23.2) 152.0 (+9.0) 48%
Baseline ML FAIR -0.7 (-22.3) 151.2 (+9.8) 48%
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -0.8 (-22.2) 151.2 (+9.8) 49%
Efficiency Plus ML FAIR -0.3 (-22.7) 152.1 (+8.9) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 1, 2024 FAIR 7874 FDU
Dec 16, 2021 FAIR 7254 FDU
Dec 22, 2020 FDU 6965 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FDU FAIR
Overall 15-17 24-13
Conference 9-7 14-6
Home 7-7 10-4
Away 8-9 10-6
Neutral 0-1 4-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.3 75.1
Avg Pts Against 78.4 71.7
Massey -9.4 (#321) -4.3 (#253)
Bradley-Terry -0.79 (#255) -0.62 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.48 (#274) -1.06 (#254)
RPI 0.430 (#287) 0.449 (#265)
Shooting & Four Factors FDU FAIR
FG% 42.1% 41.6%
3PT% 31.5% 32.9%
REB / G 34.7 33.0
OREB / G 10.1 9.6
AST / TO 1.15 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 48.4%
TOV% 16.6% 18.6%
ORB% 25.8% 26.7%
FT Rate 27.6% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.3% 50.7%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 20.0%
DRB% 65.8% 65.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 20.9%

Game Analysis

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