Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FDU +140 FAIR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +23 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.6 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.3 (-22.7) | 152.1 (+8.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.8 (-22.2) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.7 (-22.3) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.2 (-23.2) | 152.0 (+9.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 74 FDU |
| Dec 16, 2021 | FAIR 72 – 54 FDU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | FDU 69 – 65 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#321) | -4.3 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#255) | -0.62 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#274) | -1.06 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#287) | 0.449 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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