Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -400 FDU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -9.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.3 (-1.3) | 141.1 (+10.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -6.7 (-2.7) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.1 (-2.1) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -8.1 (-4.1) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | FAIR 92 – 69 FDU |
| Dec 16, 2021 | FAIR 72 – 54 FDU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | FDU 69 – 65 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#319) | -13.2 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#253) | -2.23 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#298) | -3.25 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#208) | 0.361 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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