Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -135 FDU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -1.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.6 (-5.6) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.6 (-6.6) | 143.7 (-9.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.5 (-6.5) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.7 (-6.7) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 74 FDU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | FAIR 92 – 69 FDU |
| Dec 16, 2021 | FAIR 72 – 54 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#311) | -9.8 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#276) | -2.30 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#252) | -3.30 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#303) | 0.419 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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