He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Bogota Savings Bank Center · December 16, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -10.0 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money FDU +370 / FAIR -450
Model Predictions
Spread Total FDU win
Actual FAIR +18 126 Lost
Massey FAIR -10.1 (-7.9)
Massey Totals 143.6 (-17.6)
Bradley-Terry 11%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -8.8 (-9.2) 140.6 (-14.6) 19%
Baseline ML FAIR -9.2 (-8.8) 143.9 (-17.9) 17%
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -9.4 (-8.6) 144.2 (-18.2) 17%
Efficiency Plus ML FAIR -8.1 (-9.9) 138.5 (-12.5) 19%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 1, 2024 FAIR 7874 FDU
Dec 22, 2023 FAIR 9269 FDU
Dec 22, 2020 FDU 6965 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FDU FAIR
Overall 4-22 15-18
Conference 5-13 8-12
Home 3-8 6-9
Away 2-16 8-8
Neutral 0-0 1-1
Last 5 0-5 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.2 66.5
Avg Pts Against 79.2 66.3
Massey -12.2 (#339) 2.6 (#125)
Bradley-Terry -2.64 (#337) 0.26 (#163)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.24 (#341) 0.14 (#177)
RPI 0.416 (#297) 0.491 (#185)
Shooting & Four Factors FDU FAIR
FG% 37.8% 47.4%
3PT% 33.5% 35.7%
REB / G 31.8 35.3
OREB / G 9.4 9.6
AST / TO 0.75 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.4% 54.3%
TOV% 20.7% 16.0%
ORB% 24.4% 29.7%
FT Rate 20.1% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.7% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 16.0%
DRB% 65.1% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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