Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FDU +370 FAIR -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +18 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -10.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -8.8 (-9.2) | 140.6 (-14.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -9.2 (-8.8) | 143.9 (-17.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -9.4 (-8.6) | 144.2 (-18.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -8.1 (-9.9) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 74 FDU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | FAIR 92 – 69 FDU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | FDU 69 – 65 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 3-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 2-16 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#339) | 2.6 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#337) | 0.26 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.24 (#341) | 0.14 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#297) | 0.491 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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