Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NORF +188 SDST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -2.1 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.9 (+19.9) | 134.1 (+14.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.7 (+20.7) | 134.5 (+14.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -1.9 (+20.9) | 134.8 (+14.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.3 (+20.3) | 135.6 (+13.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#208) | -0.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#221) | -0.14 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#237) | 0.07 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#217) | 0.525 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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