Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | MUR +196 SMU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +27 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -8.9 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.8 (-18.2) | 137.1 (+19.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -8.2 (-18.8) | 136.4 (+20.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -8.5 (-18.5) | 136.7 (+20.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -8.6 (-18.4) | 137.8 (+19.2) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | SMU 102 – 91 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#240) | 9.7 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#306) | 0.74 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#299) | 1.42 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#322) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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