Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -2500 LEM +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +17 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -17.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -14.8 (+2.2) | 149.2 (-22.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -12.0 (+5.0) | 150.3 (-23.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -12.3 (+4.7) | 151.7 (-24.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -12.7 (+4.3) | 151.7 (-24.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#107) | -9.0 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#232) | -1.37 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#207) | -1.64 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#254) | 0.428 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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