Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -1600 NKU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +36 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -13.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -14.2 (+21.8) | 132.5 (+15.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.2 (+23.8) | 131.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.9 (+23.1) | 131.1 (+16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.4 (+23.6) | 132.1 (+15.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-0 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#61) | -0.8 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#97) | -0.73 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#95) | -0.90 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#54) | 0.455 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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