Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | HAW -345 PORT +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +13 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -12.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -10.0 (+3.0) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -11.5 (+1.5) | 147.7 (-22.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -12.3 (+0.7) | 148.4 (-23.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -12.4 (+0.6) | 149.2 (-24.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#123) | -5.3 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#86) | -0.25 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#97) | -0.36 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#134) | 0.495 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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