We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–7 on winners spread MAE 9.9 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Georgetown @ Marquette +14.8 147.7 88% 51–81 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Baylor +26.9 140.3 91% 48–107 ✓
Stetson @ Cincinnati +18.8 148.9 90% 75–83 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southern Illinois +19.0 134.8 90% 50–81 ✓
Canisius @ High Point +5.8 148.7 74% 70–78 ✓
Winthrop @ Florida State +5.8 144.9 72% 61–67 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ VCU +19.6 140.1 91% 51–75 ✓
Binghamton @ St. Bonaventure +15.0 144.8 87% 64–90 ✓
Temple @ Old Dominion -4.2 151.2 33% 63–78 ✗
Yale @ Kansas +14.7 144.8 88% 60–75 ✓
Chicago State @ Wisconsin +21.3 138.5 90% 53–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tulsa +11.8 145.1 85% 59–65 ✓
Fresno State @ San Francisco +15.5 133.0 88% 57–77 ✓
Louisiana @ Rice +3.7 141.5 65% 84–67 ✗
Ohio @ Austin Peay +2.7 136.2 58% 67–71 ✓
Alabama State @ Auburn +22.6 148.7 91% 62–82 ✓
Marist @ Notre Dame -1.3 124.3 39% 56–60 ✗
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M +23.4 148.2 91% 52–79 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Southern Utah +7.5 136.9 78% 63–69 ✓
Missouri @ Illinois +8.6 144.0 78% 73–97 ✓
Bellarmine @ BYU +25.6 140.5 91% 59–101 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Utah State +15.7 140.3 88% 65–80 ✓
Maryland @ UCLA +1.6 133.3 54% 69–60 ✗
Colorado State @ Loyola Marymount -4.9 144.2 25% 76–67 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Hawai'i +5.8 140.1 72% 73–68 ✗
Massachusetts @ Portland -8.6 150.9 23% 100–78 ✓
Butler @ Providence +4.1 143.0 67% 75–85 ✓
Rutgers @ Mississippi State +3.0 130.0 62% 60–70 ✓
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +12.7 145.1 87% 59–87 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Rider -0.4 147.4 48% 77–73 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ NC State +21.7 141.8 91% 66–83 ✓
Toledo @ West Virginia +2.4 146.3 60% 81–91 ✓
Southern Miss @ Ole Miss +8.9 139.4 80% 72–89 ✓
UT Arlington @ North Texas +7.2 135.3 73% 52–78 ✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier +5.2 142.8 69% 54–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UNC Asheville +3.0 159.0 63% 70–79 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Arizona +7.4 157.6 76% 96–95 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Memphis +18.6 146.2 91% 75–77 ✓
Villanova @ DePaul -10.1 136.7 18% 84–48 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Alabama +22.5 159.6 90% 67–111 ✓
Duquesne @ Santa Clara -3.8 145.9 35% 73–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.