Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | SCU +118 DUQ -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -4.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.8 (+10.8) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.8 (+11.8) | 145.9 (+8.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.5 (+11.5) | 147.3 (+6.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.3 (+11.3) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#126) | 6.9 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#119) | 2.16 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#111) | 2.71 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#123) | 0.622 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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