Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -286 NMSU +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -12.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -8.6 (-2.6) | 147.2 (-23.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -11.8 (-5.8) | 145.1 (-21.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.5 (-5.5) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.1 (-6.1) | 145.8 (-21.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | TLSA 83 – 70 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#164) | -7.7 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#220) | -1.73 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#234) | -2.04 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#254) | 0.424 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 37.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.