Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | KU -1400 YALE +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | KU -15.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -12.2 (+2.8) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -14.7 (+0.3) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -14.5 (+0.5) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -14.3 (+0.7) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#30) | 1.9 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#6) | 0.41 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#8) | 0.67 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#6) | 0.511 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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