Betting Lines
| Spread | WVU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | WVU -210 TOL +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WVU +10 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | WVU -2.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WVU -2.7 (+7.3) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WVU -2.4 (+7.6) | 146.3 (+25.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WVU -2.1 (+7.9) | 147.5 (+24.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WVU -2.4 (+7.6) | 147.0 (+25.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WVU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#182) | 1.6 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#252) | 0.72 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#225) | 0.21 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#216) | 0.522 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WVU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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