Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | SF -769 FRES +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SF -17.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.4 (+5.6) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -15.5 (+4.5) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -17.1 (+2.9) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -16.6 (+3.4) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2022 | SF 67 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SF 71 – 63 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | -2.9 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#70) | -0.69 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#66) | -0.84 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.459 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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