Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
The Sobrato Center · December 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SF -10.5 Home covered
O/U 134.0 Under
Money SF -769 / FRES +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total SF win
Actual SF +20 134 Won
Massey SF -17.3 (+2.7) — —
Massey Totals — 132.7 (+1.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SF -14.4 (+5.6) 131.4 (+2.6) 87% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SF -15.5 (+4.5) 133.0 (+1.0) 88% ✓
Baseline ML SF -17.1 (+2.9) 133.7 (+0.3) 87% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SF -16.6 (+3.4) 133.4 (+0.6) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 17, 2022 SF 67 – 60 FRES
Dec 9, 2021 SF 71 – 63 FRES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SF FRES
Overall 23-11 12-21
Conference 11-5 4-14
Home 14-2 7-9
Away 6-6 3-9
Neutral 3-3 2-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 67.4
Avg Pts Against 66.8 74.2
Massey 9.9 (#52) -2.9 (#222)
Bradley-Terry 1.38 (#70) -0.69 (#248)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.00 (#66) -0.84 (#245)
RPI 0.575 (#63) 0.459 (#248)
Shooting & Four Factors SF FRES
FG% 47.0% 48.7%
3PT% 33.1% 36.0%
REB / G 35.0 34.1
OREB / G 10.2 8.5
AST / TO 1.04 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.5% 55.1%
TOV% 20.5% 20.9%
ORB% 33.2% 27.4%
FT Rate 18.0% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.3% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 15.6%
DRB% 75.6% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 18.3%

Game Analysis

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