Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -115 SF -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -8.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.5 (-10.5) | 136.7 (-9.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -3.4 (-10.4) | 135.9 (-8.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | SF 77 – 57 FRES |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SF 71 – 63 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#228) | -1.4 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#291) | 0.62 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#288) | 0.76 (#118) |
| RPI | — | 0.635 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 3.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 26.7% |
| ORB% | 10.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.3% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 85.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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