Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SUU -138 MTSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -11.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -7.7 (-1.7) | 136.4 (-4.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -7.5 (-1.5) | 136.9 (-4.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -8.3 (-2.3) | 136.6 (-4.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -7.8 (-1.8) | 136.7 (-4.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#187) | -7.7 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#278) | -1.13 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#255) | -1.15 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#288) | 0.448 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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