Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | ND -225 MRST +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -1.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -0.6 (+4.6) | 127.7 (-11.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -1.3 (+5.3) | 124.3 (-8.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.0 (+5.0) | 124.6 (-8.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.2 (+4.2) | 126.8 (-10.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#240) | 2.4 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#279) | 1.05 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#289) | 0.88 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#215) | 0.512 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.