Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | DEP +500 VILL -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +36 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -11.1 (-24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -11.4 (-24.6) | 137.3 (-5.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -10.1 (-25.9) | 136.7 (-4.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.8 (-26.2) | 136.3 (-4.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -11.7 (-24.3) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-15 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#256) | 11.1 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#297) | 1.71 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#288) | 2.71 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#225) | 0.606 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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