Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -4000 UMES +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +24 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -24.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -21.0 (+3.0) | 137.4 (-11.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -19.6 (+4.4) | 140.1 (-14.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -24.2 (-0.2) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -23.3 (+0.7) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#82) | -13.9 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#153) | -1.37 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#125) | -2.11 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#133) | 0.444 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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